A US-China trade breakthrough at the end of October has so far resulted in only a modest boost in soybean futures, as confirmation of large Chinese purchases of American beans remains lacking.
On the day of the trade agreement on Oct. 30, the January soybean futures contract was volatile, trading in a 40-cent range before eventually settling at around $11.08. As of Wednesday, at around 10 am EST, the same January contract was trading at about $11.23 - a gain of 15 cents or a mere 1.3%.
As the futures chart below shows, the market has failed to gain much momentum from the trade deal, chopping only slightly higher.
As part of the Oct. 30 agreement, China committed to buying 12 million tonnes of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tonnes annually the next three years. But while China will suspend retaliatory tariffs placed on US imports from Nov. 10, including tariffs up to 15% imposed on some imported US farm goods, it also said it will keep 10% levies introduced in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs, and US soybeans will still face a 13% tariff.
The result has been cheaper soybeans available from Brazil, where China has most recently been shopping. In fact, reports today said China is awash in soybeans after months of record imports, curbing prospects for US exports.
January soybeans: source - Barchart
