Statistics Canada is painting a brighter picture for Canada’s wheat harvest, with national output now expected to surpass both last month’s estimate and last year’s crop.
Wednesday’s Statistics Canada’s model-based crop production estimates – based on conditions as of the end of August – pegged national all wheat production at 36.623 million tonnes. That represents a significant improvement from the federal agency’s initial projection in August of 35.548 million and is now almost 2% larger than the 2024 crop of 35.939 million tonnes. The average all wheat yield is estimated at 51.1 bu/acre, stronger than both the 49.6 bu reported in August and last year’s 50.2 bu.
The upgrade is driven mainly by spring and durum wheat. Spring wheat output is now seen at 26.607 million tonnes, up from 25.992 million in August and just above last year’s 26.532 million. Higher yields of 53.1 bu/acre — up from 51.9 in August and 52.1 in 2024 — offset a 1.5% drop in harvested acres.
Durum wheat production is now forecast at 6.534 million tonnes, a gain from 6.078 million in August and 2.4% higher than 2024’s 6.379 million. Yields are projected at 37.7 bu/acre, compared to 35.1 in August and 37 last year.
At 3.481 million tonnes, estimated national winter wheat production for 2025 is up only marginally from the 3.477 million forecast in August, but well above the 2024 crop of 3.043 million. Yields are set at 82.1 bu/acre nationally, down from 86.8 last year, though harvested area is up substantially.
Saskatchewan all wheat production is now forecast at 16.738 million tonnes, up from the August projection of 15.652 million but still down 2.6% from 2024’s 17.181 million. Yields are seen at 44.7 bu/acre, compared to 41.8 in August and 44.8 last year, while harvested area is down 2.4% year over year.
Alberta all wheat output is pegged at 11.129 million tonnes, little changed from August’s 11.176 million but up 12% from last year’s 9.935 million. Yields are forecast at 52.5 bu/acre versus 52.7 in August and 48 in 2024.
For Manitoba, all wheat production is pegged at 5.41 million tonnes, close to the 5.382 million estimated in August and down 5.7% from last year’s 5.737 million. The average provincial all wheat yield is up 0.3 bu from August to 60.9 bu/acre, but down from 65.4 in 2024.
Ontario all wheat production is steady from August at 2.865 million tonnes, but up from 2.561 million last year. Nearly all of the crop is winter wheat, with production estimated at 2.767 million tonnes compared to 2.429 million in 2024. Acreage gains (+16.1%) have offset a drop in average yields to 91.3 bu/acre from 95.8.
